Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Who won?

When looking at the outcome of the war in Lebanon, opinions are split as to the winner or looser of this engagement. In my opinion this is so because both sides won something but more importantly both sides lost more than they gained. Only time will tell the impact of the loses in question will have on each side.The principal loss for Israel is that of perceived invincibility of the IDF. This loss is likely to have a major impact on the decisions of other Arab states on how to deal in the future with Israel and obviously it will not be to Israel’s advantage. As serious as this loss is to Israel in a future conventional war, it may become irrelevant in the case of a commonly predicted nuclear exchange with Iran.Hezbollah lost ground position, fortifications, unrestricted access to the border with Israel, a significant part of their fighting men and equipment and a lot of good will. As Hezbollah survived the confrontation with Israel, it can claim victory but the claim is rather hollow. But, just as Israel lost its aura of invincibility so did Hezbollah lose its near-term potential of significantly damaging Israel in a conflict.

So in final analysis, I agree with you in the sense that I feel that Hezbollah lost more than Israel lost but somehow everybody ends up losing in this engagement including the Iranians and, for once, the US avoided a big loss.

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